Vatican Election: How The Vestment Was Won

For those of us who are now pontifical junkies, this campaign ended just a little too soon. Man, what an education; to think that my prior knowledge of Catholicism derived largely from The Exorcist special edition DVD. But the papal election process is still shrouded in mystery. What drove the hierarchy of this centuries-old institution to go medieval on reform by embracing the Robert Blake-style charisma of "God's Rottweiler", Joseph Ratzinger?

To help us answer that question and more, we're joined by our longtime polling expert, William Sliender. Bill is a Senior Fellow of Self-Evident Conclave Analysis at the Brick-Lined Institute, and the author of a recent column, The Cardinals Choose: Who Will The Cardinals Choose?

Thank you for joining us, Bill. I'm really pleased you could once again participate in Lomblog's special election coverage.

WILLIAM SLIENDER: My pleasure, LF. Nothing like an old-fashioned Papist conclave, is there?

LF: There certainly isn't. Now, you've covered a few Vatican elections in your time - were there any surprises here?

WS: No, LF. Ratzinger was the favorite from the start. In fact, some of his opponents said he was so cocky, he almost seemed to be measuring the multi-colored drapes in the Room of Tears.

LF: So Ratzinger was pretty much a lock?

WS: Yes, LF. In fact, based on interviews we conducted with a few dozen cardinals before the conclave, we were able to create this color-coded election forecast:



As you can see, it was an astonishingly accurate projection.

LF: You really nailed it. But why Ratzinger? What put him over?

WS: A few things, LF. Ratzinger always polled well on qualities like "strong leadership" and "cares about cardinals like you". But really the image of strength is what put him over. It was a point his campaign team pounded home with slogans like "Joe Ratzinger - One Tough Cardinal" and "Ratzinger: A Catholic You Don't Want To Cross". The voters simply believed that he would take a firmer stand against sin than any of his competitors.

In other words, it was the values vote.

LF: The values vote?

WS: Yes. Particularly as it relates to sexual matters. One advantage that Cardinal Ratzinger enjoyed was his age. At 78, Ratzinger is not just celibate, he's super-celibate. Under questioning from his colleagues, the Cardinal stated that his last impure thought was during a 1979 Olivia Newton-John special. That's a no-lust record that virtually none of his opponents could match.

LF: Beyond the personalities, who were the swing voting blocs?

WS: Well, LF, there was really only one: Catholics. Fully 100% of the voters participating in the Conclave were Catholic - and we can say that with a level of statistical certainty that is rare in this business.

LF: What kind of Catholics?

WS: Very observant Catholics. Again, 100% of Conclave participants said they attend church on a daily basis, unless they're deathly ill.

LF: And what qualities did they value most in a perspective pontiff?

WS: Above all else: Catholicism. In fact, we tested several noted non-Papists - Hillary Clinton, Colin Powell, the Dalai Lama - against the option "Unnamed male Catholic", and in virtually every instance, the Catholic won big.

LF: That's a high level of devotion.

WS: Yes it is. When you consider that these voters would presumably elevate Mickey Rourke or Joey Buttafuoco before New York's junior senator or a former secretary of state, it really is.

LF: And what kind of Catholicism would they like to see from the new Pope?

WS: Well, there's been a real backlash within the Church against the so-called "cafeteria Catholics" who pick and choose which teachings to obey. The election of Ratzinger is a hearty endorsement of a whole new form of faith.

LF: What form?

WS: The details are still being worked out but the Cardinals are calling it "All-You-Can-Eat Catholicism." Under the Ratzinger reign, the Vatican plans to load up the faithful with extra servings of admonishment, orthodoxy and guilt. In accordance with these policies, the Eucharist will be adjusted slightly. The wine will now approximate a Big Gulp, and the wafers will be super-sized.

LF: If the conservatives won here, who were the losers?

WS: The people who usually lose when the Vatican meets: gays, women, anyone who want the church to move in a more progressive direction. That's not a surprise. The big losers were the Italians. They once had a lock on the papacy, and now they haven't elected a Pope since The Jeffersons were on in prime time. I mean, they can't even win in their home country! The Italian clergy is going to have to do some real soul-searching and message retooling if they ever want to say "Queremos Papa!" again and really mean it.

LF: Speaking of soul-searching, did the impact of the sexual abuse scandals play any role in this contest?

WS: Well, we asked the Cardinals whether the next pope should take a more public stance against pedophilia in the priesthood. Their responses were decidedly non-responsive:

Don't Know 35%
Can't Say 13%
Can't Hear You 11%
What's That? 10%
Coughing Loudly 31%

LF: Very interesting numbers. Excellent analysis as always, Bill.

WS: Thank you, LF. I hope we can meet again before the end of this Pope's natural life.