Charting the Undecideds

The 2004 campaign has now entered the home stretch. In a little more than two weeks, we will know which candidate has been fraudulently elected president of the United States. But for now, there are still many Americans who have yet to decide whether Bush or Kerry should spend the next four years in the White House or wasting away in a drunken, urine-soaked stupor. In our latest Cheese Or Lose Special Report, we zero in on some of the critical swing voting blocs that could determine this election.

Joining us once again is our resident polling expert, William Sliender. Bill is a Senior Fellow of Self-Evident Debate Analysis at the Bricklined Institute, a Washington-based think tank. His recent column, Debate Winner: Did The Debates Produce A Winner?, appeared in over 500 newspapers and 200 internets. Here's our discussion of his latest findings.

LOMBAIRE FAN: Hey Bill, good to see you again.

WILLIAM SLIENDER: Great to be back, LF. It's really getting down to the wire --- or should I say, "down to the wire"?

LF: It certainly is. Tell us about the voters you talked to.

WS: Well, as you know, in every election, there are certain key undecided voting groups that everyone agrees will be decisive - that is, if they decide to decide. In past years, we've had "soccer moms", "NASCAR dads", and "MILFs". Well, the focus groups we assembled to watch Wednesday night's final debate were broken down into representative samples of constituencies that both candidates must woo to be successful. That is, to succeed in winning the election.

LF: And what was your approach to interviewing them?

WS: Well, each member of our groups were given electronic instruments - instruments with a safety margin of plus or minus 100%. Through this, we were able to instantly record, in chart form, voter response to the debate. And as you'll see, each chart contains two lines - one for each candidate. These lines go up; they also go down. Down means the voters didn't like what they were hearing, up means they did. And to avoid any further confusion, we've chosen entirely different colors for both nominees. So the yellow line represents Senator Kerry, while the white lines - as in his party days - belong to the president.

LF: So tell us about the first group.

WS: Well, as you know, LF, health care is a very important issue in this campaign. So we wanted to test the reaction of some would-be voters who are perhaps closest to the American medical system: hospital patients who are currently unconscious and being kept alive via respirator. There are thousands of comatose voters in battleground states across this country who could make all the difference if they awake before Election Day and turn out at the polls. Using a cardiograph, this is the result we captured:




As you can see, not a lot of movement. For all the talk of stem cell research, medical malpractice and the like, these voters just didn't budge. What will it take to engage them? Who knows? We thought we saw a bit of a blip when the president raised his voice and pounded the podium a few times, but alas, nothing. On the other hand, the Kerry campaign will point to this group's constant somnolence as further evidence the Senator is a reassuring figure who doesn't "alarm" voters. So basically a wash. Looks like this is one bloc of undecideds that both campaigns might as well just write off.

LF: Very interesting. Are there any voters who are surprisingly undecided?

WS: Yes, LF - the media. That's right, the media. Many people assume that all journalists secretly carry a partisan axe but in fact, several prominent newsmen have not yet picked a candidate. Take Fox News' Bill O'Reilly. Though he works for a network known for its conservative leanings, O'Reilly professes to be undecided. Moreover, on the day of the final debate, Bill was slapped with a multimillion dollar sexual harrassment lawsuit. So it's safe to say he had a lot on his mind. But with the help of a female Fox News producer who covertly attached a blood-pressure meter to Mr. O'Reilly's person, we were able to catch his response to the debate as it happened:




Lots of up-and-down movement, as you would expect from O'Reilly. As you can see, his interest peaked early on, when President Bush referenced prostitution. Other Bush answers that resonated with O'Reilly included the president's discussion of the so-called "back-door draft" and a mention of Bangor, Maine that the anchorman may have misinterpreted. Kerry's best moment, from the O'Reilly perspective, came when he mentioned Dick Cheney's lesbian daughter. But President Bush topped even that by talking about his own college-aged daughters. In fact, just about any mention of "Bush" or "daughters" seemed to play well with the New York-based broadcaster. I think everyone at our polling unit would agree that despite his protestations to the contrary, Bill O'Reilly is definitely leaning in the president's direction - and leaning pretty hard.

LF: What about the gay community? Any undecideds there?

WS: Certainly. At a Seattle tavern, we assembled a group of over 200 uncommitted lesbians - purely for research purposes. How did they react to the debate?




As you can see, very tight race. In fact, neither candidate scored as well as they did in the last debate, when both mentioned timber. If I can offer a little bit of advice to both men, it's that they're going to have to work awfully hard to reach that lesbian vote, if they don't want to go home on Tuesday November 2 feeling the cold slap of rejection.

LF: Lesbians, the comatose, Bill O'Reilly - who could be left?

WS: Well, our next group was arranged just for a bit of fun. In every campaign, there's much discussion of children, families and the American future. So we played the debate for gaggle of toddlers in Des Moines, Iowa. We actually found them less demanding than your typical undecided voter. And their response to the debate was quite sophisticated:




Is it a bunny? A kitten? Some kind of giant mouse? Hard to tell. In fact, that's all that you can say about who's winning this race: it's just too hard to tell.

LF: Thank you, Bill. Insightful as always.

WS: My pleasure. In fact, the pleasure is mine.